New Zealand Votes Saturday as Luxon Faces Hipkins

New Zealand will hold its general election on Saturday, November 7, and the outcome looks too close to call. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who leads the centre-right National Party, is seeking a second term, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins is trying to return to the job he lost in 2023.

Luxon announced the date on January 21, saying he wanted to give New Zealanders certainty. Hipkins said the choice of a November election suggested the prime minister was desperate to hold on as long as possible. Advance voting began on October 26, and Hipkins said this week he was worried severe weather might reduce turnout on the day.

The government is a three-party coalition. National leads it together with the ACT Party and New Zealand First, an arrangement formed after the 2023 election, when National won 48 seats, ACT 11 and New Zealand First 8. Labour finished that election with 34 seats, the Greens with 15 and Te Pāti Māori with 6.

Polls suggest a very tight race. A final Post and Freshwater Strategy poll, reported by Stuff, put Labour on 30.7 percent and National on 26.4 percent, with Hipkins leading Luxon 49 to 38 as preferred prime minister. Other recent surveys showed both main parties close to each other at about 29 percent. Since neither major party is near a majority on its own, the result will depend on which parties pass the threshold and which side can build a majority.

Luxon's year has not been easy. A campaign timeline notes that he survived a party leadership vote in April and a second one in August, and a fuel crisis linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March added pressure on households. National argues that it has been working to fix the basics, while Labour says it has refreshed itself and offers a different approach.

New Zealanders will cast two votes on Saturday, one for a local candidate and one for a party. After the polls close, attention will turn to the negotiations that usually decide who governs.